In the first 11 months of this year, the sales of excavators have reached 210,000 units, exceeding the sales of the whole year of 2018, and are destined to hit a record high. In the first 11 months of this year, the sales of heavy trucks have exceeded one million, reaching 1.082 million units, and are expected to set a new record for the annual sales of our country's heavy truck industry.
Due to the close relationship with infrastructure engineering, the sales of heavy trucks and excavators are regarded as the vane of the infrastructure industry, industry analysts told Yicai, "At present, the valuation of several listed companies with better quality construction machinery is at a historically low level, combined with the infrastructure investment planning of the policy, the prosperity of the sector may increase in the next 1~2 years." ”
The rebound in sales of excavators and heavy trucks reflects the recovery of the infrastructure market. According to Sany Heavy Industry data, the operating time of excavation equipment increased by 10.6% year-on-year in January ~ September, of which the monthly year-on-year increase from May to August exceeded 20%. The excavator index is improving, reflecting that the current infrastructure investment is stabilizing.
The continuous prosperity of the construction machinery industry is a micro embodiment of China's economic potential and strong resilience, and also reflects the market's expectations for the growth of fixed asset investment in the future. The Politburo meeting held on December 6 particularly emphasized "strengthening infrastructure construction", and infrastructure will continue to play the role of a stabilizer of economic development.
After stable growth has been placed in a prominent position by decision-makers recently, stable investment has become an important measure for counter-cyclical regulation. In order to cooperate with infrastructure investment, many policies have been intensively adjusted recently, one of which is that the Ministry of Finance will issue local special bonds in advance in 2020, and local governments can issue bonds to raise funds for major infrastructure projects in January next year, forming an effective boost to the economy as soon as possible.
Excavator and heavy truck sales reached a new high
According to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in November 2019, 25 excavator manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold a total of 19,316 excavators of various types, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. the domestic market sold 17,159 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. exported 2,157 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%.
The cumulative total sales volume in January ~ November this year was 215538 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%; a total of 191839 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; a total of 23,699 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%.
Previously, in 2018, the cumulative sales of excavators reached 203,420 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.0%. Since the beginning of this year, the sales growth rate has been shrinking due to the high base, but it is a foregone conclusion that the annual sales volume in 2019 will exceed last year and hit a record high.
A salesperson of an excavator manufacturer told the first financial reporter that the sales of excavators this year are indeed good, first of all, there is the reason for the upgrading of machinery and equipment. Secondly, although the downward pressure on the economy is greater, many large infrastructure projects are being implemented or will be implemented soon, such as rail transit investment projects vigorously promoted by the state, which provide support for the continuous growth of excavator sales.
According to the analysis of Bohai Securities, since 2019, the sales of construction machinery represented by excavators have continued to maintain a growth trend, mainly due to four reasons: first, the increase in investment in real estate and infrastructure fixed assets, and the recovery of downstream demand; second, around 2011, the purchase of construction machinery has reached the replacement cycle, and the demand for renewal is strong; third, environmental protection requirements are becoming increasingly strict, and vehicles that do not meet emission standards are subject to operation restrictions; Fourth, the "Belt and Road" drives the export of construction machinery.
In terms of heavy trucks, data disclosed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that the production and sales of heavy trucks in November this year were 119,000 units and 102,000 units respectively, an increase of 32.2% and 13.8% year-on-year, respectively. Yao Jie, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that at present, commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, have become the highlight of the auto market, and a new round of environmental protection policies represented by the elimination of models below the "National III" has become an important factor driving industry demand.
In terms of the capital market, in fact, the machinery sector index and the industry's leading stocks have performed well this year. Wind data shows that since the beginning of this year, the machinery index has risen to 5,694.72 points, a new high since March 2018. So far, the index has risen by more than 25% during the year.
Looking back at the development of the excavator industry in recent years, sales have gone from peak to decline, and hit a new high this year, an unnamed brokerage machinery industry analyst told Yicai that this year's excavator sales hit a record high, which is a continuation of the recovery of the industry after 2016.
What does it mean Guoyuan Securities (000728, stock bar) believes that the recovery of this round of construction machinery is significantly different from the large cyclical fluctuations under the previous strong stimulus, and the industry operation is more stable and sustainable.
Deng Yongkang, chief analyst of Essence Securities, told the first financial reporter that at present, the government has further increased infrastructure through measures such as increasing special bonds and reducing the proportion of capital, and at the same time superimposed countercyclical policy measures such as tax and fee reductions and targeted RRR cuts, so that the macroeconomy has strong resilience.
After the Ministry of Finance issued the 2020 1 trillion yuan local government special bond quota to the provincial government at the end of November, the first financial reporter learned that many provinces have allocated this quota to specific projects of the city and county government to prepare for the issuance of local government bonds in January next year.
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